Predictors of alcoholism in young Swedish men.

OBJECTIVES The purpose of the study was to assess risk indicators for admission for alcoholism in young men. METHODS Level of alcohol consumption and background variables were analyzed in a survey of 49,464 Swedish conscripts. Admissions to psychiatric care were registered during a 15-year follow-up. RESULTS A strong association was found between level of alcohol consumption at conscription and future admission for alcoholism. The strongest risk indicator for admission for alcoholism, however, was "Contacts with police or child care authorities," with an odds ratio of 4.9. CONCLUSIONS For conscripts reporting moderate alcohol consumption at conscription there was a clear association between an increasing burden of risk indicators and future alcoholism. Among men who already had a high level of alcohol consumption at conscription, additional risk indicators, with the exception of psychological factors, had relatively little impact on future admission for alcoholism. Poor emotional control and early symptoms of mental disorder, however, were instrumental not only in enhancing the risk for high consumption at conscription, but also in enhancing the risk for high consumers to become abusers or addicted.